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Will More Cuts Follow CIBC?


The latest quarter was one that many Canadian banks would rather forget. That may make them less eager to hire.

After reporting a loss of C$1.1 billion, or C$3 a share, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce announced plans to lay off 100 people from its CIBC World Markets. Other big banks, though they didn't announce any cuts, also had dismal results: Profit at Royal Bank, Canada's No. 1 lender, slumped 27 percent to C$928 million. National Bank's net income plunged 29 percent to C$165 million. "The three banks booked combined writedowns of about C$3.46 billion, bringing the total for Canadian lenders in the past year to almost C$10 billion," reports Bloomberg News.

Companies are all under investor pressure to keep their expenses under control as the growth in Canada's economy slows. (However, it does remain superior to the U.S. economy.) The job market also appears to be softening. Statistics Canada found jobs in the professional services sector declined by 16,000 in May, even as the overall job market rose. Many banks, particularly CIBC, have been hit by the decline in the U.S. real estate market and appear to be doing fewer deals. Debt and equity financings fell 23 percent during the first quarter to C$19.2-billion, according to the Globe and Mail.

"We think that top-line revenue growth is going to be very difficult to come by in the foreseeable future," says Brad Smith, an analyst with Blackmont Capital Inc. in Toronto. "Most definitely, they will be examining their headcounts."

CIBC, in particular, may be vulnerable to additional job cuts. The Toronto-based bank booked $2.5 billion in losses in the quarter, by far the most of any Canadian bank, because of the collapse in the U.S. mortgage market. It also is undertaking a "bottoms up" review of its CIBC World Markets business, where the job cuts occurred, to refocus the business, Chief Executive Gerry McCaughey said during a recent earnings conference call. (Last year, CIBC sold part of CIBC World Markets to Oppenheimer & Co.) A CIBC spokesman declined to elaborate further. Some analysts believe the company may face an additional $3.6 billion in writedowns as it seeks to bolster its balance sheet.

"Commerce Bank (CIBC) has the largest capital pressure," Smith believes. "I would have to feel the pressure there is as great as anywhere else … TD Bank (Financial), from an expense perspective, is the next one … The direction there will be to tightening the belt and reducing on expenses." He adds: "They are all going to be focusing on expenses without a doubt."

Smith's views were echoed by Toronto-based money manager David Cokfield of Leon Frazier & Associates, who follows the banking sector. He sees CIBC and Bank of Montreal being "the least likely to hire" while other companies continue to add people in growth businesses such as wealth management. Officials from TD and Bank of Montreal could not be reached for comment.

"The banks are likely to be cautious about rushing out to be doing significant hiring,” Cokfield says. "They will still be hiring, but not as aggressively. In some areas of the business, like the mortgage side, they may be quiet."

COMMENTS

kihuri1,  Sat Jun 21 2008

Sad news from the Imperial bank of commerce. They also lost $2.5Billion in Jan. 2006 following the Enron debacle when Gerry McCaughey came on board. How come this bank keeps on hurting most from industry events?

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